AndruAndru
SignalsTrustEngagement ModelsSign in

PE's Diligence Killers: Why Poor Earnings Quality and Customer Churn Are Blocking Deal Closes

Bain/StepStone survey reveals poor earnings quality and customer churn are blocking PE deals. Why revenue instrumentation is now essential for exit readiness.

By Brandon Geter · June 12, 2026

I've watched three portfolio companies get marked down during diligence because they couldn't answer basic questions about their customers. Not complex financial modeling questions — simple ones like "Which customer segments actually renew?" and "How concentrated is your revenue?"

The Bain/StepStone survey confirms what I'm seeing: poor earnings quality and customer churn are blocking deal closes. But the real problem isn't the metrics themselves — it's that most companies can't produce them when buyers ask.

What "Revenue Quality" Actually Means

When a PE buyer says "revenue quality," they're asking three questions:

  1. Customer concentration: Are you dependent on a few big accounts?
  2. Retention by segment: Which customer types actually stick around?
  3. Predictable expansion: Can you forecast growth from existing customers?

Most founders can't answer these with data. They have gut feelings, anecdotes, and aggregate numbers that hide the real patterns.

The NRR Trap

Here's where most companies get caught: they report blended retention numbers that look healthy but mask segment-specific problems. Your overall NRR might be 110%, but if enterprise customers are at 130% and SMB customers are at 85%, you have a concentration risk that buyers will find.

I learned this the hard way when a buyer dug into our cohort data and discovered that our "healthy" retention was actually carried by 12 enterprise accounts while 200+ SMB customers were churning predictably.

What Actually Works

The companies that survive diligence can produce three things immediately:

Customer concentration analysis: Revenue, retention, and expansion potential by customer size/type

Cohort retention tracking: How different customer segments perform over time

ICP validation: Which customer characteristics predict success

This isn't complex analytics — it's basic customer segmentation that most companies should already have.

The Implementation Reality

Start with what you can measure today. Export your customer list, segment by revenue size and acquisition date, then track retention by segment. You don't need fancy tools — a spreadsheet works.

The goal isn't perfect analytics. It's being able to answer buyer questions with data instead of stories.

If you're 18+ months from exit, build this into your regular reporting. If you're closer, this becomes urgent — buyers won't accept "we're working on that" as an answer to basic customer questions.

Take the next step

Turn this into action — get a 5-minute diagnostic on exactly what's blocking your GTM.

Take the Revenue Intelligence Diagnostic →